Ivan Sichen: Russia’s main goal now is to surround the Ukrainian troops in the Joint Forces Operation zone
Ivan Sichen, an expert of the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel”, commented on the situation in Donbas for the Gazeta.ua.
After a week or two of operational pause, the Russian Federation is preparing to advance on the Donbas and try to maintain the occupation of the South of Ukraine. The Russians are accumulating everything they need for a full-scale operation. This was stated in a comment to Gazeta.ua by military expert Ivan Sichen.
“We have a certain operational pause. Active hostilities continue, but not on a full scale – except for certain sections of the front. As the war throughout Ukraine has failed, Putin has a plan to seize at least the Donbas. But the troops withdrawn from the North of Ukraine are in very poor condition. In fact, they are incapable – the military equipment is damaged, there are many wounded soldiers. The Russians are now regaining their combat readiness, and this will take at least a week or two. We are also preparing not to give the enemy an advantage”, said Sichen.
Russia’s main goal now is to surround the Ukrainian troops in the Joint Forces Operation zone, the expert emphasizes.
“They have two goals. The first is to encircle our forces in the Donbas and to reach the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. To make a buffer zone thanks to part of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk regions. The second task is to maintain the land corridor to Crimea. They need to cut off Ukraine from the sea and provide water supply to Crimea. We may temporarily lose Mariupol, but we will hold back the offensive”, Sichen said.
Ukrainian troops are preparing to repulse the enemy, the expert added.
“I am confident that we will not allow them to implement their plans. Of course, it will be difficult. The next two weeks will determine everything. Today we benefit from prolonging the offensive more than Russia. Because it has neither the resources nor the people – they do not want to fight, because they see what is really happening. There is no weapons in Russia, because more or less normal weapons was destroyed. Sanctions also work. Prices are rising, the ruble is falling, modern equipment is not being supplied to Russia. Panic begins in the regions bordering Ukraine. Everyone is afraid that we will start offensive”, Sichen stresses.
In the first days of the war Russia had problems because they had not carried out the necessary preparations, the expert explains.
“They thought they would capture Ukraine within three days. Compared to 2014, when Russia sent troops to the Donbas, everything was visible and clear. Command and logistics units, weapons and fuel were deployed there. Hospitals were deployed. This was not the case now. Therefore, intelligence agencies did not see any signs of preparation for war. And the occupiers left the places of permanent deployment and attacked, but they lacked strength. Now, from the end of March, 2022, they are accumulating everything needed for a full-scale operation. They are deployed near our borders to deter our troops – in the North of Ukraine, in particular. The main strike is planned in the Donbas. To achieve at least some success”, says Sichen.
Ukraine has a chance to restore state borders, but this requires weapons and the political will of the state leadership and the military, says the expert.
“Everything will depend on the number of weapons and the political will of the leadership. But it can be done. Because Russian troops in the Donbas are almost destroyed, mobilization was disrupted. Much has also been destroyed from the Russians Crimean troops. The 22nd Army Corps of the Black Sea Fleet was virtually destroyed in the battles near Kherson and Mariupol. If there is a wish, we can restore the state border”, says Sichen.
Author: Anastasiia Prokaieva
Source: Gazeta.ua
